Tag: energy prices

Reframing the energy transition: security, affordability and the road to a cleaner future

11 May 2026

Opinion

The energy transition is often talked about as a single destination: net zero. But in reality, it’s a set of trade-offs that have to work for people and businesses today; keeping energy affordable, secure and reliable, while building the lower-carbon system the UK needs. 

In this episode of The Purposeful Strategist, Will Gardiner, CEO of Drax, shares how the conversation is widening beyond targets and timelines towards the practical realities of powering a modern economy. From rising demand driven by electrification, data centres and AI to the constraints of the grid and the pace of building new infrastructure, the discussion gets into what it will take to keep the system stable as it changes. 

Listen to the podcast here.

A key theme is flexibility and how dispatchable generation and system support help balance intermittent wind and solar, manage volatility, and maintain resilience. Will also reflects on leadership in a high-scrutiny sector: the importance of communicating clearly, building trust, and making the case for why energy underpins everything from industry to everyday life. 

Listen now to hear what a pragmatic, system-wide approach to the energy transition looks like and what it will take to deliver clean power with security and affordability.

Supported by Norman Broadbent: https://www.normanbroadbent.com/

The UK’s energy trilemma requires more than price reform

27 April 2026

Opinion

This article first appeared in Energy Voice. 

The UK Government’s move to explore breaking the link between gas and electricity prices reflects a growing recognition that the current system is exposing consumers and businesses to unnecessary volatility. While reducing exposure to gas-driven pricing is an important step, it will not single-handedly remove the UK’s vulnerability to global markets if the system remains unbalanced. 

Historically, the UK has prioritised generation sources that offer ample supply and low cost, such as coal and gas. While coal has been phased out, and renewables like wind, solar, and biomass play a larger role than ever, the UK has become increasingly dependent on gas generation as a source of energy security. 

Recently, the energy debate in the UK has become unhelpfully polarised between those who believe we are either too dependent on gas or not dependent enough. While both arguments have merit, they miss the point entirely. The global energy transition has unlocked new technologies that make balancing the trilemma – affordability, security, and sustainability – possible for the first time. 

There are four main ways the UK benefits from these new technologies: 

  • Energy security and sovereignty: A growing number of generation technologies are scaling, meaning Britain can diversify its portfolio to produce and store a greater share of its power domestically, reinforcing energy independence. This in turn helps to protect consumers from geopolitical price shocks. 
  • Technological innovation and modernisation: Technologies like AI are expected to transform industries from healthcare to defence, finance and energy. Those able to power this demand stand to disproportionately benefit from them as they scale. 
  • Economic benefits and growth: Reliable, affordable energy is increasingly critical to attracting investment across sectors such as data centres and manufacturing, and a diversified system also helps stabilise prices. 
  • Environmental survival and sustainability: Decarbonising the system remains essential. By shifting to a mix of low-impact generation technologies, the UK can reduce emissions while maintaining reliability. 

Acknowledging the challenges 

The path ahead is exciting but also filled with obstacles, some known and many not. Political and economic uncertainty remains a key barrier to a balanced energy system. Investment decisions depend on confidence that projects will deliver stable returns. Volatility in inflation, regulation and policy increases risk and slows investment. 

As policymakers consider reforms to electricity pricing and market structures, clarity and predictability will be crucial. Signals that point towards more stable, contract-based approaches to generation can help unlock investment, but only if they are consistent and long-term. 

In the UK, where energy prices are among the highest in the world, limited energy storage and dependence on gas means shocks to oil and gas markets can spike energy costs. For example, since the war in Ukraine first choked off gas supplies to Europe, the UK has spent an additional £90 billion on gas – approximately £2,000 per adult.  

Closer to home, another influence can stall vital energy projects: community concerns. Companies should listen carefully to community leaders, communicate project benefits and stages clearly and consistently, and follow through on commitments to foster trust. Community support is essential to reach a final investment decision; if trust can’t be established in enough areas, it becomes difficult to meet future market needs.  

Another barrier is increased competition. While AI offers a potential pathway to a bright future, that same promise also lures away finite investable cash from vital industries including the energy sector. At the same time, supply chain constraints are increasing costs and delaying delivery. 

Compelling opportunities for the energy industry 

At the same time, there are clear opportunities for our industry to build an energy system that works for our future. 

The AI arms race hinges on access to power, with both the private and public sectors racing to secure supply. A growing mandate for companies to BYOP (bring your own power) provides increased autonomy for hyperscalers to choose how they provide the electricity for AI, and it offers a path forward that doesn’t require taxpayers to shoulder the financial burden. This private sector demand is already accelerating investment in new generation.  

It’s also becoming increasingly clear that nations need to fortify their energy security. Access to stable power is a game-changing differentiator to attract future economic opportunity, and strong energy independence and resilience can insulate against market swings – like those from international conflicts. 

Wind, solar, hydro, sustainable biomass, and geothermal diversify national energy portfolios, supporting reliability and price stability during supply chain disruptions. They can often be produced and/or stored domestically as well, further limiting exposure. 

Identifying responsible solutions 

To reach the full potential of these defining opportunities, the UK needs the right mix of technologies. A more balanced system – combining different technologies that can provide both low-carbon and reliable, dispatchable power – will be essential to making this work in practice. 

This includes weather-dependent renewables, such as wind and solar; flexible generation, such as open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) and biomass, to manage intermittency; and battery storage to manage peaks in demand and improve system stability. 

Market reforms can support this transition, but they will only succeed if they are matched by a system that is built for resilience, not just efficiency. 

As Ed Miliband set out, expanding clean, domestically produced power will be central to building a more secure energy system. It offers greater stability, control and a path to energy sovereignty. 

Making this a reality will depend on how the system is designed – combining renewables with flexible and dispatchable generation to ensure reliability. The direction is clear; the challenge now is delivery. 

The Case for Diversification

2 April 2026

Opinion
A resilient energy system demands multiple sources of power generation, flexible assets that can rapidly respond to spiking demand and supply-stabilizing storage technologies.

This article first appeared in Energy Intelligence

At the onset of the war in the Middle East, global energy markets reacted instantly. Oil prices surged and gas markets tightened, bringing the risk of renewed cost pressure for consumers and industry into focus. In many power markets, gas-fired generation still sets the marginal price of electricity, so when gas prices spike, electricity prices tend to follow. For the UK, a nation overly dependent on natural gas, this is a familiar dynamic following the shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the price of gas in the UK — which imports a large portion of its supply — surged by almost 25% following strikes on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East. These events expose structural weaknesses in modern energy systems. The risk of disruption has long been visible — in geopolitics, supply concentration and infrastructure constraints — and it has been consistently underestimated.

For decades, countries have optimised for efficiency under normal conditions, focusing on low-cost generation, streamlined supply chains and just-in-time delivery. In doing so, systems have been left with limited shock absorbers.

When disruption hits, there is little buffer — only pass-through cost.

The impact is not just being felt in household bills. For energy-intensive industries, this volatility increases uncertainty, which can delay or deter investment. For governments, it translates into fiscal strain and heightened political exposure. For economies, it erodes competitiveness at the margin.

Pricing the Shock

High energy prices are damaging, but unpredictable energy prices can be worse.

The challenge of this unpredictability is even more acute as global electricity demand from data centres accelerates. Data center power demand could increase to 945 terawatt hours by 2030, more than Japan’s total electricity consumption.

Electrification, industrial growth and expanding digital infrastructure will further accelerate power demand. In this context, reliable and affordable power is nonnegotiable; it’s a prerequisite for growth and security.

Geopolitical challenges are increasingly being seen as a structural feature of the energy landscape, not episodic, and the 2020s are a clear lesson for energy security: The risks were always present, and the system hasn’t been designed to absorb them.

Security Trumps Decarbonisation

At CERAWeek this year, that reality was front and center. Across discussions with industry leaders, policymakers and investors, one theme came through clearly — the era of single-solution thinking is over:

  • Decarbonisation, while still an essential part of the conversation, is taking a back seat to energy reliability and affordability.
  • A diversified portfolio approach is progressively becoming the new default.
  • Power demand is a landscape-shaping force that favors flexibility.

Taken together, these shifts suggest the conversation is moving away from focusing on how to decarbonise energy systems toward how to make them durable, recognising that when reliability and affordability come under threat, sustainability is often deprioritised. Without a more holistic approach to balancing all three, we risk repeating that pattern and exacerbating the climate crisis.

Markets Redefined

This shift has profound implications for economic competitiveness. Markets with stable, reliable and affordable power systems will have a decisive advantage.

Those without could face higher costs, slower growth and reduced investment. Energy policy is, in effect, becoming inextricably linked with industrial policy.

Recent geopolitical crises have punctuated the need to avoid replacing one form of dependence with another; instead transitioning toward building energy systems that are more resilient by design. Today, that means diversification.

A resilient energy system demands multiple sources of power generation, flexible assets that can rapidly respond to spiking demand and supply-stabilising storage technologies. No single source can deliver consistent performance across all conditions, so a diversified mix ensures that when one becomes unavailable or costly, others can step in to maintain supply and limit price volatility.

In the wake of the latest energy shock following the war in the Middle East, inadequate long-term planning has left politicians concerned about pricing and rushing to mobilise short-term solutions — some of which could come at the expense of efforts to progress the energy transition, which risks undermining a truly resilient system long term. For example, some European countries called for quick reform to minimise the EU Emission Trading System’s impact on power prices, while others called for a full suspension.

One outlier in Europe is Spain, which saw renewable energy capacity rise to 57% of the country’s electricity mix in 2025. Spain has added over 40 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity since 2019.

As a result, gas sets electricity prices for a significantly smaller share of the day — around 15% — reducing exposure to global gas price volatility relative to other European markets.

On the other hand, the UK’s experience illustrates the cost of limited diversification. Despite rapid growth in renewables, wholesale power prices remain heavily exposed to gas, a dynamic that has contributed to some of the highest electricity bills in Europe.

Operators are increasingly responding by building more balanced portfolios that combine generation, storage and flexible assets to manage volatility. Drax’s own portfolio, spanning biomass, pumped storage, battery systems and open cycle gas turbines, reflects this shift, providing dispatchable power and system services that help stabilise the grid when supply tightens.

Resilience by Design

Designing for resilience requires a shift in mindset. Disruption should not be treated as exceptional, but as inevitable. The goal is not to predict the next shock, but to ensure the system can withstand it.

In a more volatile world, resilience is becoming the defining measure of energy security. The countries that succeed in the next phase of the energy transition will not be those with the most generation capacity but those with systems designed to endure disruption.

Ross McKenzie is the chief corporate affairs and sustainability officer for UK electricity generator Drax Group. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

Price matters – lowering the cost of the energy transition

14 April 2025

Opinion

  • Analysis by Baringa shows that Drax Power Station, operating under a new low-carbon dispatchable CfD, will lower the costs of the UK clean energy transition between 2027 and 2031 by £1.6 to 3.1bn, compared with a scenario without Drax.
  • When there isn’t enough electricity from weather dependent renewables to meet demand, Drax will step in to increase generation.
  • This brings down the amount of costly ‘standby’ capacity the Government needs to buy on the capacity market to avoid shortages
  • It also makes the UK less reliant on gas and imports via interconnectors, reducing the upwards influence they have on the wholesale cost of energy.
  • By displacing gas, Drax will reduce emissions from the electricity sector by approximately 4 MtCO2 between 2027 and 2031 – equivalent to taking 1.5 million diesel or petrol cars off the road.   

Over the next six years, the UK will increasingly rely on electricity generated by intermittent renewables and, by 2030, wind and solar will provide the majority of our electricity.

Drax Power Station will play an essential supporting role, stepping up generation when windless, gloomy weather causes wind and solar output to drop, and stepping down again to balance the grid when the weather changes.

As a clean energy source, its flexibility to do this is rare. Nuclear, for instance, provides a steady flow of clean electricity, but it can’t be turned up and down in the same way Drax’s biomass generation units can.

The Government has designed a new low carbon dispatchable CfD to support Drax’s flexible generation between 2027 and 2031.

Analysis by Baringa shows that this lowers the costs of the clean energy transition between 2027 and 2031 by between £1.6 – 3.1bn. There are two major factors in this: lower capacity market costs and Drax’s impact on the wholesale costs of electricity. These are explained in more detail below.

Reduced capacity market payments

The capacity market is colloquially referred to as the UK’s black out prevention system. It works by paying some energy generators to have extra ‘standby’ capacity available, which can then be drawn on when there is a shortage of electricity.

Prices in the capacity market vary from year to year and are affected by the amount of existing guaranteed capacity in the market – the more that there is, the less that needs to be procured in the capacity market, and the lower the price.

Drax Power Station provides 2.6GW of capacity. That’s more than any other single source in the UK and more than double the capacity of the average gas power station. It’s also more than the combined capacity of the UK’s two largest operational nuclear power stations – Heysham 2 and Torness (2.4 GW). *

Having it on the system brings down prices in the capacity market as the Government needs to purchase less capacity. Baringa estimate that this saves the UK between £640m and £1bn from 2027 to 2031.

Reduced wholesale energy cost

Electricity generated at Drax Power Station will make the UK less reliant on gas and interconnector imports. Both are typically expensive, particularly in the winter months when high demand in the UK and Europe, as well as Asia, pushes up prices.

For instance, when the UK was hit with a period of cold, gloomy windless weather in early January, demand increased as supply from wind and solar plummeted and the UK called on additional gas and imports to fill the gap. Power prices briefly surged to £2,900/MWh (40 times their average) as a result.

Research by Baringa estimates that Drax Power Station will reduce gas generation by around 4.3% and imports by almost 4.9%. This brings down the wholesale electricity price, saving £1.8bn compared to a counterfactual scenario without Drax, and potentially more if the price of gas is higher than anticipated.

Drax Power Station also reduces the UK’s exposure to ongoing price volatility in these markets, which influences the wholesale prices of energy in the UK on an ongoing basis. For example, the price of gas shot up by 130% when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and, as the graph below shows, it continues to fluctuate.

Displacing gas reduces fossil fuel use and cuts carbon

Displacing gas not only has a price benefit, it lowers fossil fuel use. In the case of the low-carbon, dispatchable CfD with Drax, reducing emissions from the energy sector by 1 million tonnes CO2e per year (4 MtCO2e over the course of the four-year term). This equates to c.5% of total power sector emissions and is equivalent to taking 1.5 million diesel or petrol cars off the road.

Overall, as the UK moves to a clean energy system, Drax makes sense for consumers and the climate. Beyond 2030 there is also the potential to add carbon capture and storage technology to Drax Power Station, converting it to BECCS. This could create the world’s largest carbon removal facility; saving the UK £15bn on its path to net zero and helping position us at the leading edge of an exciting new technology area that will be critical to meeting global climate targets.

Report: ‘Value for money assessment of the low carbon dispatchable CfD for Drax Power Station’, Baringa (2025) can be read in full here.